We need banks. Don’t get me wrong. But do we need to keep all of our money in banks and “save”? Absolutely not.

I always talk about investing but today is the math behind losing value, not money.

If you are barely getting a 1% return on your money in a savings account, but inflation rates hold steady at 3.5%…you will make money but technically lose value.

For example: you put $10,000 in the bank and after a year, that grows to $10,100. So you made $100.

However, inflation and cost of living rose by 3.5%….which means what cost you $10,000 now costs you $10,350.

So essentially, you made $100 but lost $250 in purchasing power because of inflation.

Yes, that is a simple way to explain it but saving is not enough. You should consider investing in something that at the very least outpaces inflation rates. That’s just simple math!!

Yes, apparently that is a thing. I’m surprised I never knew about it, but my first interest has always been National Parks. There are so many state parks that it’s hard to keep track. But as Emily and I were searching for some decent hiking within a reasonable driving distance, we stumbled across Letchworth State Park in NY.

Emily likes to hike all the time, but especially right before heading back to college as a “mental reset” before all the hard work starts. So we are headed to the Grand Canyon…of the East:

The Grand Canyon of the East is Letchworth State Park in New York, renowned for its dramatic gorge, waterfalls, and scenic trails.

Letchworth State Park, often called the “Grand Canyon of the East,” spans over 14,000 acres along the Genesee River in western New York, near Rochester and Buffalo. The park features a deep gorge carved by the Genesee River, with cliffs rising up to 600 feet, creating a landscape reminiscent of the Grand Canyon in Arizona. The park is divided into three main areas: the Upper, Middle, and Lower Falls, each offering unique vistas and natural beauty

One of the best trails is the Gorge Trail: Letchworth State Park Gorge Trail, New York – 1,101 Reviews, Map | AllTrails

We will see how we feel that day if we want to do the full 14+ miles or not. It’s an IN and OUT trail so we can go for as long as we want. Though it’s been a very long time since I’ve been to the actual Grand Canyon, I can’t wait to tell you all about the experience and how it lives up.

Happy Monday. Every day I check on the stock market and it seems one of the most common items I see each time is the same: OIL. Many things influence oil but it always seems to be one of the cyclical commodities on the market. It made me think…what other commodities are also the most cyclical. And if they truly are, aren’t they more predictable to buy low and see high? Obviously it’s not that simple as we all know, but definitely something to keep and eye on.

Always do your own due diligence, but here’s a quick read:

The Most Cyclical Commodity

Industrial metals — especially copper — are widely regarded as the most cyclical commodity, with prices swinging dramatically in response to global economic cycles, supply constraints, and structural demand shifts.

Why Industrial Metals Are the Most Cyclical

Industrial metals, such as copper, nickel, aluminum, and tin, are deeply tied to the health of the global economy. Their prices follow a clear commodity cycle pattern:

• Expansion phase: Rising demand (from infrastructure, manufacturing, and clean energy projects) outpaces supply growth, pushing prices higher.
• Peak: Supply constraints (long lead times for mining, smelting, and refining) cause prices to peak.
• Contraction phase: Oversupply and lower prices trigger reduced investment and output, leading to a downturn.

Drivers of Their Cyclical Nature

• Economic growth: Industrial metals are inputs for manufacturing, construction, and technology, so their demand mirrors GDP trends.
• Supply lead times: Mining and refining take years, so supply adjustments lag demand changes, creating overshoots and undershoots.
• Structural demand shifts: The green energy transition, AI infrastructure, and electrification are fueling a new “supercycle” for copper and related metals.
• Geopolitical and policy factors: Trade restrictions, export controls, and commodity policies can amplify price swings.

Comparison to Other Commodities

• Energy (oil, natural gas): Also highly cyclical, but often influenced by geopolitical shocks and supply disruptions in addition to economic cycles.
• Agriculture: More prone to localized shocks (weather, crop failures) and can be less synchronized with global economic cycles.
• Precious metals (gold, silver): More influenced by monetary policy, safe-haven demand, and investor sentiment, with longer-term trends overriding short-term cycles.

Bottom Line

If you’re looking for the commodity with the most pronounced and predictable cycles, industrial metals — particularly copper — stand out. Their prices are tightly linked to global economic rhythms, supply constraints, and long-term structural demand, making them both the most cyclical and the most sensitive to macroeconomic shifts