Happy Monday. Every day I check on the stock market and it seems one of the most common items I see each time is the same: OIL. Many things influence oil but it always seems to be one of the cyclical commodities on the market. It made me think…what other commodities are also the most cyclical. And if they truly are, aren’t they more predictable to buy low and see high? Obviously it’s not that simple as we all know, but definitely something to keep and eye on.

Always do your own due diligence, but here’s a quick read:

The Most Cyclical Commodity

Industrial metals — especially copper — are widely regarded as the most cyclical commodity, with prices swinging dramatically in response to global economic cycles, supply constraints, and structural demand shifts.

Why Industrial Metals Are the Most Cyclical

Industrial metals, such as copper, nickel, aluminum, and tin, are deeply tied to the health of the global economy. Their prices follow a clear commodity cycle pattern:

• Expansion phase: Rising demand (from infrastructure, manufacturing, and clean energy projects) outpaces supply growth, pushing prices higher.
• Peak: Supply constraints (long lead times for mining, smelting, and refining) cause prices to peak.
• Contraction phase: Oversupply and lower prices trigger reduced investment and output, leading to a downturn.

Drivers of Their Cyclical Nature

• Economic growth: Industrial metals are inputs for manufacturing, construction, and technology, so their demand mirrors GDP trends.
• Supply lead times: Mining and refining take years, so supply adjustments lag demand changes, creating overshoots and undershoots.
• Structural demand shifts: The green energy transition, AI infrastructure, and electrification are fueling a new “supercycle” for copper and related metals.
• Geopolitical and policy factors: Trade restrictions, export controls, and commodity policies can amplify price swings.

Comparison to Other Commodities

• Energy (oil, natural gas): Also highly cyclical, but often influenced by geopolitical shocks and supply disruptions in addition to economic cycles.
• Agriculture: More prone to localized shocks (weather, crop failures) and can be less synchronized with global economic cycles.
• Precious metals (gold, silver): More influenced by monetary policy, safe-haven demand, and investor sentiment, with longer-term trends overriding short-term cycles.

Bottom Line

If you’re looking for the commodity with the most pronounced and predictable cycles, industrial metals — particularly copper — stand out. Their prices are tightly linked to global economic rhythms, supply constraints, and long-term structural demand, making them both the most cyclical and the most sensitive to macroeconomic shifts 

I have friends who have done this trip recently and the experience is apparently a great one. I do suppose you have to enjoy bourbon to fully appreciate it…. which I do. I have not been there yet myself, but I anticipate it will someday be on this list of trips I have completed.

Luckily for me, my next-door neighbor (who we often do beer exchanges together) was just down there last week. He brought me home this bottle to try:

I have heard that Bardstown Bourbon Company is a good one and I’m looking forward to trying this one. However, based on the 121.2 proof, this isn’t one I’ll be sampling mid-week. Sounds more like a Friday night with an early bedtime.

Here is the home page for anyone interested in the Bourbon Trail as a trip or just to research.

Homepage | Kentucky Bourbon Trail®

I’m off topic once again, but this one is important. I often post about investing, and I still will. That is a more fun topic: investing vs saving. However, there needs to be both in your portfolio/account.

The question is: how much cash should you have saved up? You can always do your own research, but I think it’s wise to have some money put aside for between 3-6 months of living expenses. As an example:

• Housing costs: Rent or mortgage, property taxes, and utilities
• Food and groceries
• Transportation: Gas, car payments, insurance, or public transit fees
• Insurance premiums: Health, auto, or any mandatory insurance
• Healthcare expenses: Regular medications or medical visits
• Minimum debt payments: Credit cards, loans, or other obligations
• Essential personal and household expenses: Such as childcare, necessary clothing, and communication services (phone, internet)

Take a look at your credit card and billing statements, see where the necessary stuff lies….and what you could do without in an emergency. Save that up and put it somewhere safe (I personally like TBIL).

Once you know you have a safety net, then continue to filter more of the cash you have into your investments!